76% of marketers expect holiday revenue growth for 2026

Seventy-six percent of brand and retailer professionals expect their 2026 holiday revenue to rise 1%–31% or more against 2025, according to a Glossy+ Research survey of 90 industry professionals published in the report "The 2026 guide to holiday marketing strategies." Not one respondent — 0% — expects holiday revenue to fall by more than 11% year over year.

That marks a shift in mood. Last year's Glossy holiday report found brands and retailers conservative about their 2025 holiday revenue. This year the survey base, which included interviews with executives at A-Frame Brands, Mastercard and Ritual, leans clearly optimistic.

The optimism comes with caveats. Inflation, an election-year backdrop and rising transport and fuel costs all sit on the minds of the marketers Glossy interviewed.

What are executives actually saying?

"It is getting brutal out there," said Ari Bloom, founder and CEO of brand incubator A-Frame Brands. "Costs are getting so high, and the economy is soft right now, and probably will get softer as we get into the fall. The cost issue is going to be really hard for a lot of smaller companies to absorb with heavy discounting."

Bloom also flagged the political calendar. Election years change consumer psychology around prices, he argued: "People will have a sentiment of whether the environment is inflationary, whether things are too expensive or there's an affordability crisis."

Laura Brodie, chief growth officer at supplement company Ritual, shares the concern about consumer confidence but not the gloom. "Even with the state of the economy and consumer sentiment sitting at a pretty low point in history, I'm bullish," Brodie said. "Spending is resilient." Growth will likely be modest, she conceded, and the real question is where the spend gets allocated.

Brodie expects consumers to favor experiences and personal, mission-driven gifts this season. "We're seeing a big cultural shift towards nostalgia, being intentional and spending time with family," she said. Founder-led brands, especially in health and wellness, "will have a strong opportunity to win" in her reading.

Will discounts get deeper?

Mostly, no. Eighty-one percent of respondents expect their 2026 holiday discounts to match their 2025 levels. Rather than cut prices further, brands are turning to bundling and gifts with purchase.

Bloom said bundling suits the season's buying pattern. "Holiday is a time when people will buy multiples," he noted, often buying the same gift for three people and one for themselves. A-Frame has weighed bundling against discounting with that dynamic in mind.

Trial-size gifts added to orders can convert gift buyers into repeat customers, he added: "It is a really good way to get people who are buying a gift to keep something for themselves as part of the transaction."

What replaces discounting?

Ritual's Brodie pointed to retention economics. Acquiring customers during the holidays is expensive, so perks aimed at existing customers — exclusivity, a compelling gift with purchase, a seasonal drop — can be more cost-effective. Ritual has also swapped gift-with-purchase inventory with like-minded brands, including skincare label Osea. "Brands that are in similar sizes can come together and create something that feels compelling that can benefit both brands," she said.

Susan Grossman, evp of consumer acquisition and engagement services at Mastercard, expects investment in rewards, exclusive access and experiences that extend beyond the holidays. "The more sustainable approach is to think about value more broadly," Grossman said in an email — personalized offers, relevant recommendations or incentives timed to the right moment.

The prerequisite, she added, is data quality: "When brands understand intent, they can be more precise with when, where, and how they use incentives." Blanket discounting, in her framing, wastes margin on shoppers who needed no nudge.

Watch whether the optimism survives the fall. Bloom expects the economy to soften before the season peaks, and actual discounting behavior in November will show whether the 81% held the line.